How Many Votes Do You Need to Win a Local Election?

How many votes do you need to win a local election? Before using a formula, confirm how your election determines the winner. Some races require a majority. Many others are decided by plurality, which means the candidate with more votes than any other candidate wins even without receiving 50%.

In its simplest form, the winning formula for a two-candidate majority race is:

Expected votes cast × .50 + 1 vote = Minimum votes to win
Expected votes cast × .52 = Practical campaign target

That’s the quick-and-dirty calculation for a majority win. Pulling together real-world numbers gets a little trickier. To calculate more accurately how many potential voters you need to win, you’ll need some hard numbers and some educated guesses.

The 52% figure is not a legal threshold or a guaranteed margin of victory. It is simply a working target that provides a small cushion if your turnout estimate is close.

Rather than calculate this manually, use our Votes Needed to Win Calculator to estimate ballots cast, the mathematical threshold, a practical vote target, supporters to identify, and voter contacts required.

Find the Total Population of Your District

The total population includes all the people who live in your district, regardless of whether they can vote. The population includes children, noncitizens, people who are not registered, and others who cannot participate in the election.

Population provides useful background, but it is not usually the best number for estimating a winning vote target.

Determine the Total Number of Voters

For campaign planning, start with the number of registered voters in the district. This is more useful than total population because it reflects the people who are currently registered to participate.

Use the most recent figures available from your county, municipal, or state election authority.

What’s the Expected Voter Turnout?

This is the expected number of votes cast in the election. Not every voter is going to vote. In this case, let history be your guide.

If 40% of registered voters voted in the last comparable local election, and all things are similar, you can use roughly 40% as a starting estimate. If the election falls on a presidential or midterm election date in November, check turnout from a similar election year and use that as your baseline percentage.

Whenever possible, look at the number of votes cast in the same contest, not only the total number of ballots cast. Some voters skip individual races. Turnout may also change if the current race has more candidates, an open seat, a major local controversy, or another issue drawing attention.

Calculate the Number of Votes Needed

If you need a majority of the votes to win, the formula above is what you need: 50% of expected turnout plus one vote.

In some cases, you may only need a plurality of the votes cast, or more votes than any other candidate in the race. In a multi-candidate race, you could win with a distinct minority of the vote. Some jurisdictions also use runoffs, ranked-choice voting, or multi-seat election rules.

Convert your estimated percentage into an actual number of votes. This gives your campaign a planning target, not a guarantee. The final number needed will depend on actual turnout and how the vote is divided.

Example: A Two-Candidate Majority Race

How many votes does a candidate need to win? Say you have 10,000 people in your district. Of those people, 6,000 are registered voters. In the last comparable election, 2,400, or 40%, of registered voters actually voted in the contest. The election did not fall on a national election day, and it was a two-person race.

In this case, you would need a minimum of 1,201 votes to squeak through a victory:

2,400 × .50 + 1 = 1,201 votes

This assumes that your current election will have a similar voter turnout rate as previous elections.

It’s best to err on the side of caution and overestimate the number of votes you need. In this case, we’ll calculate with 52% of the expected turnout, which gives us a practical target of 1,248 votes:

2,400 × .52 = 1,248 votes

Of course, this number will be subject to the actual voter turnout and how many supporters you can get into the voting booth.

Other Possible Election Examples

The 50%-plus-one formula doesn’t apply to every race. These hypothetical examples show how the winning number can change.

Three-Candidate Plurality Race

Suppose 2,400 votes are cast. Candidate A receives 960 votes, Candidate B receives 840, and Candidate C receives 600. Candidate A wins with 40% because that candidate received more votes than either opponent.

In a plurality race, the exact winning number cannot be known in advance. Your target should account for the number of candidates, the strength of your opponents, and previous results from similar races.

Majority Election With a Runoff

Suppose 2,400 votes are cast among three candidates. The leading candidate receives 1,100 votes, or about 46%. If local rules require a majority, no candidate has reached the 1,201-vote threshold. The top candidates may advance to a runoff, depending on the jurisdiction.

Multi-Seat Board Election

Suppose two seats are open and the two candidates receiving the highest vote totals are elected. In that type of race, you may not need 50% of the vote. A more useful benchmark may be the number of votes received by the second-place winner in comparable past elections.

Use Results From Several Elections

For more accurate results, review the numbers from the last few comparable elections. An average can provide a useful baseline, but avoid combining elections with very different turnout conditions. There may have been reasons for higher or lower turnouts on a given election.

You may also want to create low, expected, and high turnout estimates. This shows how your vote target changes if participation is weaker or stronger than expected.

One common planning mistake we see is candidates focusing on total population or registration alone. The more useful figures are usually turnout and winning vote totals from comparable contests. It doesn’t matter if someone says they will vote for you, they actually have to do it at the ballot or through mail.

Use official results from your local election authority whenever possible. Our state voting information directory can help you find the appropriate election resources.

Turn the Vote Target Into a Campaign Goal

Estimating the winning number is only the first step. Your campaign must identify enough supporters and make sure they actually vote. A person who expresses support is not automatically a vote in the final count.

Your vote target can help determine how many households you need to contact, how many supporters you need to identify, and how large your voter-turnout effort should be. See How Many Households Must You Reach to Win a Local Election? for the next part of that calculation.

Note: The votes needed to win a U.S. presidential election are calculated differently. The President and Vice President are chosen through the Electoral College rather than by a direct national popular vote. The Electoral College currently consists of 538 electors, and 270 electoral votes are required for a majority.